RASC News Agency: An Iranian official has warned that the Taliban regime could collapse due to an internal rebellion, civil war, or external intervention. Former Iranian Ambassador to Tajikistan, Rasul Mousavi, stated that the Taliban have thus far failed to gain either domestic or international legitimacy. He emphasized that the group’s rule remains fragile and susceptible to internal fractures. Criticizing the Taliban’s governance, Mousavi asserted that the group has reverted to its original model monopolizing power along ethnic Pashtun lines and imposing governance strictly under Hanafi jurisprudence.
According to Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, the seasoned diplomat made these remarks during the Second Strategic Dialogue among Iranian, Afghanistani, and Russian scholars in Tehran. He outlined three potential scenarios for the Taliban’s future: Continuation of the current status quo, where the Taliban remain in power but face persistent domestic and international challenges. A transformation in governance, where the Taliban might adopt more inclusive policies, potentially transitioning toward a participatory government.
A regime change, triggered by internal uprising, civil war, or foreign intervention. Mousavi firmly stated that international recognition of the Taliban is improbable. He added, “Afghanistan’s instability will persist due to both international concerns and internal crises, including ethnic divisions, restrictions on women’s rights, and bans on girls’ education.” Furthermore, he underscored that regional nations remain deeply alarmed by the Taliban’s sheltering of terrorist factions, which has obstructed meaningful regional cooperation.
Mousavi also referenced United Nations reports on systematic human rights violations in Afghanistan, labeling them crimes against humanity. He revealed that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has called for the arrest of the Taliban’s supreme leader and chief justice.
