Taliban Leader’s Power Monopoly Paving the Way for ISIS Expansion in Afghanistan

RASC News Agency: The Observer Research Foundation, in an analysis published on Monday, March 25, described the assassination of Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani, the Taliban’s Minister of Refugees, as a sign of ISIS-Khorasan’s growing threat and the Taliban’s deteriorating security apparatus. The report argues that the Taliban leader’s authoritarian grip on power has exacerbated internal divisions, allowing ISIS to expand its influence within Afghanistan. The author of the analysis views Haqqani’s assassination as a clear indication of ISIS’s capability to strike at senior Taliban figures, raising serious concerns about the Taliban’s ability to maintain security and stability.Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani was killed in December 2024 in an attack in Kabul, an incident for which ISIS swiftly claimed responsibility.
The Observer Research Foundation’s report also notes that several Taliban ministers have voiced opposition to the leader’s centralized rule, warning that his power-driven approach is deepening rifts within the group and creating opportunities for rival factions to exploit. According to the analysis, the Haqqani Network despite holding official positions in the Taliban government operates with substantial independence, managing its own finances and strategic objectives. Following Haqqani’s assassination, several countries, including Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, as well as prominent Afghanistani figures such as Hamid Karzai, condemned the attack. However, Hibatullah Akhundzada, the Taliban’s supreme leader, was notably absent from Haqqani’s funeral, fueling speculation about internal discord.
The report further suggests that the attack on Khalil-ur-Rahman Haqqani may have been facilitated by internal elements within the Taliban. It also underscores the diplomatic influence of Sirajuddin Haqqani, leader of the Haqqani Network, who has repeatedly challenged the Taliban leader’s policies. The analysis posits that Sirajuddin’s public criticisms of the Taliban’s leadership may not only be aimed at reform but also serve as a political strategy to garner Western support. Additionally, the report highlights Akhundzada’s deep mistrust toward his subordinates, citing his recent decision to personally oversee the distribution of military resources a move that has caused discontent among key figures such as Sirajuddin Haqqani, Shahabuddin Delawar, and Mullah Yaqoob.
The analysis also addresses ISIS’s ideological challenge to the Taliban, stating that the group accuses the Taliban of compromising Islamic principles in pursuit of international legitimacy. By targeting senior Taliban leaders, ISIS aims to undermine the group’s credibility and attract disillusioned Taliban fighters into its ranks. Moreover, the report points to the Taliban’s repressive policies against ethnic minorities as a key factor in ISIS’s recruitment strategy. The Taliban’s weak governance and Afghanistan’s porous borders have further facilitated ISIS’s operations, allowing the group to expand its training, recruitment, and attack capabilities posing serious regional security risks.