RASC News Agency: Andrei Serenco, head of the Contemporary Afghanistan Studies Center in Moscow, predicted in an interview with Russian media that “sooner or later, Afghanistan will implode, and a new civil war will erupt.” He further noted that “the Taliban have managed to survive solely because of U.S. support.” When asked whether the Taliban regime would collapse, Serenco replied, “The group will not be able to save itself, neither with U.S. funds nor with the backing of Sirajuddin Haqqani.” He added that once a civil war breaks out in Afghanistan, all foreign powers will withdraw from the country, and Russia will be forced to intervene. However, he emphasized that Russia currently has no intention of contemplating such a scenario due to other pressing issues, such as the Ukraine crisis and ongoing sanctions. Serenco also stated that Russia must prepare for potential developments in Afghanistan, stressing that Moscow should expand its relationships with various factions and groups in the country to protect its interests.
He pointed out that after seizing power, the Taliban initially attempted to maintain their hierarchical structure and reach some form of internal agreement. However, competition and tensions among factions have now intensified, and these groups “grow increasingly hostile toward one another with each passing day.” Serenco also noted that armed resistance against the Taliban is rising, with various fronts, including the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, launching attacks in areas where even Taliban officials are afraid to leave their homes at night. He emphasized that the U.S. is attempting to prevent the collapse of the Taliban regime to avert disorder and new security threats. Otherwise, he questioned, “Who will implement the Doha Agreement?”
Serenco continued, stating that the U.S. is essentially the lifeline of the Taliban, asserting, “The Americans transferred power to the Taliban, and this is why they continue to finance the group.” He added that for those who believe the Taliban drove the Americans out of Afghanistan, “This is simply laughable.” The Russian expert further emphasized that no country in the world collaborates with the Taliban as much as the United States does, adding, “The Taliban are fed from the American palm.” According to Serenco, the Taliban will not remain in power for long, as history shows that like other regimes in Afghanistan, they too will eventually fall. Recalling historical examples, Serenco stated, “The communists resisted for over 10 years before collapsing, while the Republic regime lasted for 20 years but fell in just three days.” He added that the same fate awaits the Taliban, and their downfall is imminent.
Serenco stressed that the Taliban regime holds no legitimacy, as no one in Afghanistan has elected this group. In part of his interview, Serenco also referred to Russia’s decision to temporarily remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations and expressed doubts about the implications of this move. When asked whether this action would benefit Russia, he replied, “I have doubts about that.” He further explained that by removing the Taliban from the terrorist list, the group cannot be considered an ally, and it could potentially reduce support for anti-Taliban resistance groups that still place their hope in Moscow. Serenco remarked that this decision might be “neither beneficial to God nor harmful to the devil.”
Russian state news agencies reported that the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has requested the country’s Supreme Court to temporarily remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations. According to reports, the Supreme Court is set to review this request on April 17th.
